Macquarie Group Tip Half Yours to Win Melbourne Cup

In a striking forecast ahead of Tuesday’s race at Melbourne Cup, the quantitative analysts at Macquarie Group have selected Half Yours as their preferred winner. The data-driven model places Half Yours above competitors, signalling strong confidence from the finance firm’s team of AI and machine learning tools.

Macquarie Group’s system merges traditional metrics, such as prize money, win-rates and odds, with machine-learning models (including large-language-model ensembles) that process contextual signals like trainer form, market sentiment and stamina for the 3200-metre trip at Flemington.

In this year’s release, the AI models (e.g., GPT, Claude, Gemini) operate alongside the firm’s quant models. For the first time, the human and AI components converge on the same shortlist of contenders: Half Yours, Presage Nocturne, Valiant King and Flatten the Curve.

Trainer Tony McEvoy highlighted the gelding’s readiness and drew attention to his barrier eight draw, which he described as “beautiful”, giving his rider freedom to settle rather than being forced into early decisions.

Half Yours won the Caulfield Cup (2400m) while racing wide, and his pedigree suggests staying ability: sired by St Jean (son of Teofilo) out of a mare by Desert King, a line that has produced top-level stayers.

Moreover, McEvoy noted that rain is expected at Flemington, and Half Yours has scored wins on soft and heavy tracks, a factor the model would likely consider favourable.

Macquarie Group’s approach penalises runners lacking local form via a “tariff handicap”, a nod to international horses competing on foreign soil. International entrants such as Al Riffa and Flatten the Curve are treated less favourably in this framework, while horses with proven Australian form, such as Half Yours and home-trainer (Calvin McEvoy’s) partner’s runner Torranzino, gain an advantage.

This adjustment reflects the quants’ awareness of the challenges overseas runners face in adapting to Australian conditions and handicaps.

While the model picks Half Yours as number one, it also spotlights Presage Nocturne, Valiant King and Flatten the Curve as strong challengers. These​‍​‌‍​‍‌​‍​‌‍​‍‌ picks convey merged signals from both the conventional quant model and the AI and machine learning tools.

However, history reminds us that long shots and surprises abound in this race. As one racing analyst noted, the favourite’s path in the Melbourne Cup has many obstacles. 

By publishing this forecast ahead of the event, Macquarie Group brings a fresh twist to betting commentary. While the firm clarifies this exercise is “not intended to be taken seriously”, the merging of finance-type modelling with sport invites attention from both punters and analysts alike. Because Half Yours is already a market favourite, the quant endorsement might shift money flows and odds, potentially affecting the starting price and handicapping behaviour.

On Tuesday afternoon, attendees and viewers at Flemington will watch how the model’s logic plays out in real time. If Half Yours fulfils the prediction, it will mark a significant moment for McEvoy’s training career and for the firm’s experiment. McEvoy described a win as “life-changing”, highlighting the emotional weight behind the numeric forecast.

Conversely, if one of the other shortlisted runners claims victory, it may raise questions about the limitations of AI-augmented racing models.

In a year when data and machine intelligence are ever more present in sport, Macquarie Group’s pick of Half Yours provides both a headline and an invitation: how far can quantitative tools go in predicting one of racing’s most unpredictable events? Whether the model is proven right or not, it’s a standout entry into the narratives of this year’s Melbourne Cup.