The Top Longshots in 2025 Kentucky Oaks

The Longshots in the 2025 Kentucky Oaks is set for Friday at Churchill Downs, drawing a full field of 14 fillies. With three morning-line favorites projected to command the most attention, there’s no shortage of interest at the top of the board. Still, many bettors will turn their attention to the longer shots, hoping to land on a filly who can exceed expectations.

This year’s field includes several late-running types who could benefit from a contested pace. If early frontrunners wear each other down by the final turn, the advantage may shift to those waiting in the second tier. Here’s a closer look at three longshots with the potential to produce a strong result, especially if the early speed falters.

Lemon Orchid, Canyon Belle, and Valentina Air may not be the top picks on the board, but each of them deserves a closer look among the longshots. While their records may not shine on paper compared to the favorites, there are reasons to believe one of them could deliver a surprise performance when it matters most.

Lemon Orchid is quietly shaping into a late-running type who could take advantage of a hot early pace. Her fourth-place finish in the Fair Grounds Kentucky Oaks may not stand out immediately, but the wide trip and her ability to keep moving forward hint at more potential. She’s been improving in morning workouts, and trainer Al Stall Jr.’s patience may pay off if the race unfolds in her favor. Among longshots, she’s one to monitor closely.

Canyon Belle had a rough trip in the Ashland Stakes, stumbling out of the gate and never recovering her position. That performance pushed her off the radar, but her sharp win at Oaklawn two races back shows she has talent when things go right. With a change to jockey Flavien Prat and a style suited to off-the-pace running, she could emerge as one of the more serious longshots in this race.

Valentina Air brings consistency, even if she’s flying under the radar. She’s placed in multiple starts, often closing late even when the pace doesn’t help her. In a setup where the frontrunners battle too early, her grinding style could work well. Among the longshots, she might be the one who quietly picks up the pieces and lands a strong finish.

Trainer George Arnold has placed her carefully throughout the season, and her recent workouts suggest she’s maintained fitness. Although her best result came against lighter competition, her late stretch kick could bring her into contention if the top picks begin to tire under pressure.

Several fillies in the field have shown a preference for setting or pressing the pace. That may create pressure up front, which often leads to slower finishes from those involved in the early fractions. In such a case, horses sitting off the speed can benefit.

If the pace scenario plays out this way, it favors horses like Lemon Orchid, Canyon Belle, and Valentina Air. Each has experience waiting behind the lead group and moving forward when others begin to slow. Their odds may be high, but so is the potential for a payout if they land in the top three.

While the favorites will draw most of the public’s attention, the odds on the longshots provide greater value for bettors aiming for a larger return. Whether playing straight bets or combinations such as trifectas and superfectas, these longer prices offer more leverage for each dollar invested.

What matters most is spotting a horse whose profile fits the likely shape of the race. These three contenders meet that standard based on running style, experience, and timing in their current condition.

The 2025 Kentucky Oaks features depth beyond the top names, and with the right setup, there may be a surprise outcome waiting at the wire. These longshots bring enough tools to make an impact, and in a race like the Kentucky Oaks, that’s all it takes to make a difference on the board.